...In each of the three cycles, consumer confidence rose for exactly 4 years and 4 months and then turned down.
Friday, November 29, 2013
Citi "Skeptical Of The Sustainability Of This Uptrend"
...In each of the three cycles, consumer confidence rose for exactly 4 years and 4 months and then turned down.
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
50 Unfortunate Truths About Investing
...10. Time-saving tip: Instead of trading penny stocks, just light your money on fire. Same for leveraged ETFs.
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Monday, November 25, 2013
In China 1.2 Million Candidates Apply For 19,000 Government Jobs
Hoosier's: China will just have to develop its domestic economy, i.e., to encourage domestic consumption to create jobs!!!
Sunday, November 24, 2013
Dennis Rodman
Hoosier's note: Dennis Rodman may look like a crazy Dude, but he was a damn good Basketball player. Michael Jordan couldn't have won the NBA Championships without Dennis Rodman.
Saturday, November 23, 2013
Wilmar #20
On November 13, 2013, Wilmar opened and closed at S$3.47. And, as seen from the chart, Wilmar moved to a high of S$3.65 on the next 4 sessions.
Wilmar also hit a low of S$3.47 on Thursday, November 21, 2013, before closing at S$3.48. The next day, i.e. Friday, November 22, 2013, Wilmar opened 4 cents higher at S$3.52 before closing at S$3.55.
It looks like S$3.47 is a good support in the short-term.
At S$3.55, Wilmar is now once again sitting on the short-term green support line that I had drawn.
I said the following at the TPG Forum on November 21, 2013,
Click on image to enlarge...
Clearly, S$3.55 is a significant level, and in order for Wilmar to move much higher, I would like to see Wilmar staying above the S$3.55 level in the coming sessions.
Friday, November 22, 2013
HUGH HENDRY: 'I Can No Longer Say I Am Bearish'
Hoosier's note: I remain fully-invested.
By the way, Hugh Hendry is one of my favorite hedge fund managers, not that I am aware of or have followed what he has invested in, but, because he is a great thinker.
Thursday, November 21, 2013
Einhorn: "Fed Policy Is A Headwind To The Economy"
Hoosier's note: David Einhorn is one of the smartest guys around.
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
Wilmar #19
We may possibly see a Double Bottom with a neckline at S$3.92 on the Monthly chart.
Wilmar #18
I don't provide daily commentary of stock movements. But, yesterday, Wilmar made a complete turn-around and lost 10 cents to close at S$3.52--totally took away all the gains achieved in the previous session, plus some more.
As seen from the chart, Wilmar closed EXACTLY on the short-term support line (in green) yesterday. Wilmar HAS TO close in the positive territory today in order to continue its march to higher grounds; otherwise, we may see Wilmar testing the 50-day moving average (in blue) currently with a value of S$3.3686.
Tuesday, November 19, 2013
Wilmar #17
Yesterday, I sold all of my holdings in Wilmar at S$3.63.
Although I still think that Wilmar will continue to march higher, but, I don't feel comfortable with the Dow and the S&P making new highs for no apparent reasons (besides the markets thinking that Janet Yellen is Dovish)...something is amiss.
So, I just take profit first.
Monday, November 18, 2013
Saturday, November 16, 2013
Thursday, November 14, 2013
Wilmar #16
Yesterday, November 14, 2013, Wilmar traded between S$3.48 and S$3.56 before closing EXACTLY at the resistance of S$3.55 with a volume of 14.5 million.
As seen from the chart, the 50-day moving average (in blue) has made a cut above the 200-day moving average (in red), just as I had hoped to see.
I have said on October 23, 2013 that I showed my father the Daily chart of Wilmar and told him to expect a huge run up in the share price if and when we do see both the 50-day MA (in blue) and the 100-day MA (in grey) cut above the 200-day MA (in red).
The last time when both the 50-day MA (in blue) and the 100-day MA (in grey) cut above the 200-day MA (in red) was in early 2009. I have reproduced the chart for that period to give you a bigger picture of what I was talking about.
Wednesday, November 13, 2013
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
Wilmar #15
Wilmar closed at S$3.49 with a good volume of 9.3 million shares.
It looks like Wilmar has cut and closed above the red resistance line. However, the 50-day moving average has yet to cut above the 200-day moving average (the moving averages are NOT indicated on the chart).
Monday, November 11, 2013
Wilmar #14
As indicated on the chart, the red resistance line is a strong one. If and when Wilmar is able to break above this red resistance line, we will see Wilmar marching much higher.
Also note that the 50-day moving average (in blue) is about to cut above the 200-day moving average (in red). I believe this will occur at the same time when Wilmar make a push to break above the red resistance line.
Personally, I do expect both the 50-day (in blue) and the 100-day (in grey) moving averages to ultimately cut above the 200-day moving average (in red) and we shall see Wilmar moving much much higher...as I had said here.
Sunday, November 10, 2013
Ray Dalio's Bridgewater On The Fed's Dilemma: "We're Worried That There's No Gas Left In The QE Tank"
...The basic issue is that quantitative easing is a much less effective tool when asset prices are high and thus have low expected returns than it is for managing financial crises. That's because QE stimulates the economy by (1) offsetting a panic by providing cash to the financial system when there's a need for cash, and (2) by raising asset prices, and driving money from the assets they buy into demand and investment, creating a higher level of future economic activity. So, the policy was particularly wise and most effective (in the sense of impact per dollar) at the height of the financial crisis when there was both a desperate need for cash and when extremely depressed asset prices were heavily weighing on demand and investment.
Now, there is a flood of liquidity and asset prices are high relative to underlying fundamentals. So the impact of additional asset price increases on demand is much less (as high asset prices and low future returns make assets more interchangeable with cash).
Saturday, November 9, 2013
Larry Kotlikoff Asks "Is Hyperinflation Around The Corner?
...And while Bernanke says this is all to keep down interest rates, there is a darker subtext here. When the Treasury prints bonds and sells them to the public for cash and the Fed prints cash and uses it to buy the newly printed bonds back from the public, the Treasury ends up with the extra cash, the public ends up with the same cash it had initially, and the Fed ends up with the new bonds.
Yes, the Treasury pays interest and principal to the Fed on the bonds, but the Fed hands that interest and principal back to the Treasury as profits earned by a government corporation, namely the Fed. So, the outcome of this shell game is no different from having the Treasury simply print money and spend it as it likes.
The fact that the Fed and Treasury dance this financial pas de deux shows how much they want to keep the public in the dark about what they are doing. And what they are doing, these days, is printing, out of thin air, 29 cents of every $1 being spent by the federal government.
Friday, November 8, 2013
Wilmar #13
As seen from the Monthly chart, when the 10-month moving average (in blue) is above the 12-month moving average (in red), the share price of Wilmar is more likely to move higher. Conversely, when the 10-month MA is below the 12-month MA, the share price is more likely to move lower.
I have blown up the Monthly chart,
As seen from the chart, Wilmar is now above the 10-month MA but below the 12-month MA when it closed at S$3.38 yesterday, November 8, 2013.
For Wilmar to begin a long-term Uptrend, the 10-month MA has to cut above the 12-month MA.
How China Can Cause The Death Of The Dollar And The Entire U.S. Financial System
...Our entire way of life in the United States depends upon this game continuing. We must have the rest of the world use our currency and loan it back to us at ultra low interest rates. At this point we have painted ourselves into a corner by accumulating so much debt. We simply cannot afford to have rates rise significantly.
Peter Schiff On Janet Yellen's Mission Impossible
...Rather than explicitly describing the possibility of a reduction of asset purchases, recent Fed statements have merely said that policy would be "adjusted" according to incoming data. It has never said what direction that adjustment may take. Yet somehow the market has concluded that an imminent reduction is the only possibility. But the opposite conclusion is more likely. Recession avoidance is really the Fed's only concern and it will always come down on the side of accommodation. Therefore an expectation for a 2014 taper is just wishful thinking.
But that does not mean that QE will go on forever. It will come to an end, but not because the Fed wants it to, but because the currency markets give it no choice. A dollar crisis would ultimately force the Fed's hand, and the longer the Fed succeeds in postponing the inevitable, the more damage its policy mistakes will inflict on our economy.
Bill Fleckenstein Blasts "The Price Of Everything Is Out Of Whack"
...But he says the Fed is starting to lose control already - meaning that stocks could crack even if the Fed continues to buy $85 billion worth of assets each month.
"Interest rates on the 10-year bonds have risen 100 basis points since last spring, and there's still no tapering," Fleckenstein noted.
"So why have bond rates risen? I think the Fed is no longer able to dictate where the bond market is going to trade. If that's the case - and I say 'if' - then the game is going to change prospectively, because if the Fed loses control of the bond market, it's not going to be able to have unilateral say in where assets trade."
Specifically, Fleckenstein is watching the 3-percent level on the 10-year yield very closely.
Hoosier's note: About 20 years ago, it was said that the Stock Market will only crack if the 10-year yield hits 6.8%!
Wilmar #12
After the announcement of the 3Q2013 results, Wilmar faced a sell-off today, November 8, 2013. Wilmar closed at S$3.38, losing 7 cents, with a good volume of about 9 million shares changing hands.
I said the following at the TPG forum this morning,
In particular, I said that "If Wilmar is able to close above 3.38 today, then 3.38 is still a support".
As it turned out, surprisingly or unsurprisingly, Wilmar closed EXACTLY at S$3.38 (with a Weighted Average Price of S$3.385) at the end of the session today, November 8, 2013,
I am Long on Wilmar and I would like to see Wilmar continue to move higher from here. But, if Wilmar continues to weaken, I will just hold on to it, and collect dividend, until it finally moves higher.
I said the following at the TPG forum this morning,
In particular, I said that "If Wilmar is able to close above 3.38 today, then 3.38 is still a support".
As it turned out, surprisingly or unsurprisingly, Wilmar closed EXACTLY at S$3.38 (with a Weighted Average Price of S$3.385) at the end of the session today, November 8, 2013,
I am Long on Wilmar and I would like to see Wilmar continue to move higher from here. But, if Wilmar continues to weaken, I will just hold on to it, and collect dividend, until it finally moves higher.
Thursday, November 7, 2013
Wednesday, November 6, 2013
Lakshman Achuthan Confirms "The US Is 'Still' In Recession"
Hoosier's note: I agree with what he said.
Dow at record high, again?
I think Dow is beginning to look like another Blumont! :D :D :D
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